Do Oil Prices Predict Inflation?

Do Oil Futures Prices Help Predict Future Oil Prices?

2004 and by more than 40% since the beginning of 2005.Though the U.S. economy has apparently absorbed this supply shock well so far, the path of future oil prices remains a concern for monetary policymakers. Higher oil prices can damp demand, as consumers and firms spend more of their budgets on oil-related products and less on other goods and services. Furthermore, if higher oil prices are pas...

Can Oil Prices Predict Stock Market Returns?

This paper performs an empirical investigation into the relationship between oil price and stock markets returns for seven countries (Kuwait, Oman, UAE, Bahrain, Qatar, UK and USA) by applying the Vector Auto Regression (VAR) analysis. During this period oil prices have tripled creating a substantial cash surplus for the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) Countries while simultaneously creating inc...

Do High Oil Prices Presage Inflation? The Evidence from G-5 Countries

We estimate the effects of oil price changes on inflation for the United States, United Kingdom, France, Germany, and Japan using an augmented Phillips curve framework. We supplement the traditional Phillips curve approach taking into account the growing body of evidence suggesting that oil prices may have asymmetric and nonlinear effects on output and that structural instabilities may exist in...

Import Prices and Inflation

Understanding the consequences of international developments for domestic inflation is an extremely important question for central banks. But before we claim to have measured the extent of import price pass-through, it is necessary to be clear on exactly what such a number is intended to mean. One can attempt to come up with an answer on the basis of either economic theory or empirical evidence...

Inflation and health care prices.